Some General Conclusions
Some General Conclusions
Hardly a year and a half before the next elections, the structure of the domestic parties exhibits a rather enigmatic picture.
If we look at the surface, we are under the impression that two opposing parties dominate the political arena with elemental force and in an exclusive way. Looking at a two-year trend, however, this dominance is only too problematic.
MSZP has not been able to unambiguously distil disillusionment and dissatisfaction into victory, into an possible counter-strike. It is more precise to say that although their victory is possible under favorable conditions, but it may not be sufficient for governance.
Fidesz may have lost some of its popularity, but not to an extent to rule out its victory again at the next elections. By driving the two-year budget through Parliament, Fidesz has undoubtedly won itself the exceptionally advantageous position of a “disposer” for the months preceding the spring of 2002. No one knows, however, whether the Hungarian voter can be influenced en masse by effulging direct material benefits.
The future of the party structure is most likely to be delineated by the fact, that the rate of undecided, taciturn voters, keeping their preferences to themselves has never been so high as at the very end of 2000. This number kept rising all year through, and by the final months of the year the number of hesitant voters was almost as high as the number of voters with party preferences. And a very significant portion of the hesitant voters, most likely some 1.5 million people will in the end take part in the elections and they can decide – either way – on the future of the party structure now resting on a delicate balance.
The outcome of all this may be a re-election of the present government with absolute majority in Parliament, but a landslide Socialist victory can also be expected with equal reason. And if those who sit on the fence until the very end will take side with any one party of the “third force”, the Hungarian party structure can go through some elemental changes.
As can be seen from the above: there are too many unpredictable factors here which rule out the possibility to undertake any forecast of substance with any degree of responsibility. Only one thing is certain one and a half years before the next elections: the structure of the Hungarian parties may inherently include the possibility of quite unexpected events as well.
László Kéri
