Changes in the Transport Sector
Changes in the Transport Sector
Under the impact of the demands of the industrial, agricultural and commercial, as well as the service sectors, the share of road transport in the modal division continued to increase to the disadvantage of railway transport and freight transport by inland waterways. At the same time, the output of air transport also underwent a dramatic increase.
(Distribution of the modes of freight transportation in 1999 [freight tons/km]: road 49.9%, railway 29.4%, pipeline 17%, inland waterways 3.7%.)
During the entire transition period of 1998, passenger transport output in terms of passenger kilometers dropped by 7.2% relative to 1990. The capacity of freight transport decreased by 22.4% between 1990 and 1998 in terms of ton kilometers.
In addition to a decrease in the output of public passenger transport, the number of passenger cars and the share of transport increased significantly, even though a rapid rise in operating costs seriously affected the average running performance of the car fleet. A fall in public transport demand by about 10% within seven years is closely related to increased motorization and a major tariff increase in recent years in respect of solvency.
The number of accidents involving personal injury in Hungary decreased by 27.5% between 1990 and 1998, while the number of passenger cars increased by 14%.
Figures 1 and 2 illustrate how the social and economic transformations that started in 1989 effected major changes within the individual transport sectors, as well as the related impacts that may further intensify in the long term.
Essential factors in this forecast are that Hungary plans to joint the European Union in 2005, the population will decrease further, and the GDP will exhibit annual growth of about 3.8 to 5.5% on average in the period of 1996 to 2015 – any lower value for bottom limits was rejected.* In the field of transport Hungary is becoming more similar to the present EU members, but the share of railway haulage and public transport output will remain above the EU average.
KTI is the Hungarian Research Insitute of Transport Science.
Among the transport sector markets, the air transport market is undergoing dramatic development, followed by road transport, while railway transport and inland water navigation are actually stagnating.
Forecasts show that passenger transport in 2015 will exceed 1990 output figures by 27 to 39%. In 2005, global freight transport is expected to reach 1990 levels, then in 2015 to exceed it by 4% or even as much as 25%.
Change in the Output of Passenger Transport in a Breakdown by Transport Modes in Hungary (1980 to 2015)
Source: Central Bureau of Statistics (KSH)
Forecast: KTI Rt. considering NEA-INRETS-IWW forecasts
(Billion p-km)
Change in the Output of Freight Transport in a Breakdown by Transport Modes in Hungary (1980 to 2015)
Source: Central Bureau of Statistics (KSH)
Forecast: KTI Rt. considering NEA-INRETS-IWW forecasts
(Billion p-km)
There is a substantial difference between the individual sub-sectors, thus, road freight transport is expected to realize a development of 71 to 79% in the period of 1990 to 2015, while road passenger transport 42 to 52%. The output of railway passenger transport will essentially remain unaltered in the period of 1990 to 2015, however, a drop in output by 35 to 50% relative to 1990 is foreseeable in freight transport. Regardless, this would mean an increase of 15 to 31% compared to 2000.
